Wednesday, March 19, 2008

The GOP Is In Trouble This Fall ....

Many years ago, shortly after the inauguration, I submitted a guest editorial to the now defunct Tulsa Tribune predicting that George the First, aka George Herbert Walker Bush, would be a one term President. I predicted a Democratic win in the next presidential election cycle because of Bush I's high handed treatment of the evangelical vote and its representatives.

I suspect that the good ole Trib, always up for a good joke, printed my article as just that, a joke. However, the two following Clinton presidencies pretty well verified my analysis. Well, I'm older and wiser now. I'm not going to spend two hours spelling out the reasons that the GOP and John McCain are in deep stuff come election time. It's all already spelled out in other places on this blog. Everything I have been predicting is pretty well spelled out in a recent Barna Group press release that should have the GOP pools losing sleep. That data can be found HERE.

The gist of the Barna study is that recent polling data shows that the larger group of Born Again Christian voters no longer favor GOP candidates and a large portion of the Evangelical subset of Born Again Christian voters is either undecided or unmotivated. What the McCain's of this world do not understand is that the Evangelical voter is not party loyal. He or she is issue loyal. The voter may not realize this. Frequently, they don 't analyze their positions. They just go do something else rather than volunteer for a candidate. Without these Christian volunteers, the "Christian vote" will not come out and if the "Christian vote" does not come out, McCain loses. To date, McCain has shown nothing but arrogance about this situation. I am afraid it is too late for him to mend his fences and while the specter of a Hillary or Obama presidency might be enough to get some of that vote out it is not enough to make them volunteer for a candidate that has stiff armed them for his entire career. And given that, the numbers just aren't there for McCain.


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